Get Humana Health Insurance – A January survey of 1,200 CEOs conducted by Ernst & Young found that 98% expect a recession this year.
The FactSet consensus is that we are now in a mild six-month recession, and the Bloomberg consensus is that a mild recession will begin in the second quarter and last through two quarters.
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This is good news. The bad news is that economists historically almost always underestimate recessions, so it’s possible that negative growth could be worse this year.
Humana Forecasts Bigger Medicare Advantage Growth Of 825,000 Members
If your portfolio is diversified and filled with ultra SWAN (sleep well at night) companies like Humana ( NYSE:HUM ) , the recession of 2023 won’t affect your retirement planning.
Let me show you three reasons why Humana is an amazing fast-growing dividend ultra SWAN, perfect not just for the 2023 recession, but for all future recessions.
In fact, as a fast-dividend-growth part of your portfolio, Humana is a potential dream stock for a wealthy retiree.
Humana is an excellent, fast-growing ultra SWAN pick for this recession or any recession. In 2022, it’s up 5% while the market is down 18%, and its historical beta is 0.47 (it falls about half as much as the broader market in most recessions).
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As it is a highly recession-resistant business, and despite a strong rally over the past year, it remains a potentially good buy for the 2023 recession.
The government pays companies like Humana the same way it pays Medicare providers, and Humana’s incredible profitability is proof of that:
The company has become more vertically integrated over time, including purchasing some healthcare providers such as Kindred at Home in 2021.
This vertical integration has helped Humana achieve, maintain and grow its strong position in Tricare, Medicaid and small employer health insurance plans.
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In 2022, HUM’s market share in Medicare Advantage was 48%, and management believes it will increase to 60% by 2030. By 2030, an aging population means nearly 20% of all Americans will be eligible for Medicare Advantage, saving the U.S. government money.
Value-based care, in which compensation is tied to better outcomes, is the new gold standard on which the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, aspires.
And guess what? Better service and superior results come at no cost to Humana. Its value-based care plans bring in 20% higher margins.
Adherence is between 81% and 97% for preventive medicine in cancer screenings and medications to control diabetes and cholesterol. This is why national insurance rating agencies rate HUM at 98% compared to 86% for its national counterparts.
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What does this mean for customers? 900,000 more preventive screenings in the last five years, saving thousands of lives.
This has saved the healthcare industry (including government) over $5.5 billion. And that’s with only 2 million average customers.
The government loves Humana for saving money. Businesses love Humana for saving money. The military loves Humana for managing Tricare so efficiently. And customers love Humana for its great service and great results. Humana, in 2022, was ranked as America’s Best Health Insurance Company by J.D. Power and Forrester Research and no. 2 from JD Power in US mail order pharmacy.
In other words, Humana’s cost efficiency does not come at the expense of good care. Its cost efficiency and incredible profitability are due to its superior care, which saves lives and money.
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Because of this high quality and low cost, Humana has grown 11.4% annually since 2017, compared to 9.1% for the industry.
How big is HUM’s addressable market? About $1.32 trillion. It currently has a turnover of $103 billion. That’s a total market share of 7.8%, though it leads the industry
Management aims to grow EPS between 1% and 2% annually through cost savings, and its track record is very good.
Rating Dividend Kings Safety Score (250-point Safety Model) Estimated Risk of Dividend Cut (Moderate Recession) Estimated Risk of Dividend Cut in Pandemic Level Recession 1 – Unsafe 0% to 20% Up 4% 16+% 2- Below Average 21% to 40% Above 2% 8% to 16% 3 – Average 41% to 60% 2% 4% to 8% 4 – 61% to ‘80% 1% 2% to 4% 5- Very Safe 81% to 100% 0. 5% 1% to 2% HUM 100% 0.5% 1.00% Risk Rating Very Low Risk (S&P Global Risk Management 93rd percentile) BBB+ Credit Rating Stable Outlook = 5% 30-Year Bankruptcy Risk Maximum 20% or below Click to expand the risk limit
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DK Company Long Term Reliability Score Interpretation Points Unreliable Companies 20% or less Weak Reliability 1 Low Reliability Companies 21% to 39% Below Average Reliability 2 S&P 500/Industry Average 40% to 59% Average A %96% Average Reliability %96% Reliable 4 Very good 80% or higher Very reliable 5 HUM 100% Very reliable 5 Click to enlarge
HUM Final Score Security 100% 5/5 Very Safe Business Model 90% 3/3 Wide Gap Reliability 100% 5/5 Very Reliable Total 97% 13/13 Risk Assessment Ultra SWAN 5/5 Very Low Risk 5% or less Maximum Risk Limit Rick 20% Safety Margin for Potentially Better Buys Click to expand
Among the top companies in the world, HUM is in the top 20%, a true world-class Ultra SWAN you can trust in any economy.
If HUM grows as expected and returns to fair value by 2025, it could provide returns of 60% or 18% annually.
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Compared to the S&P, HUM represents an ultra SWAN opportunity for potentially very good dividend growth. See how it compares to the market.
Metric Growth 2022 Growth Consensus 2023 Growth Consensus 2024 Growth Consensus 2025 Sales 14% 11% 9% 11% Dividend 13% 8% 2% 15% EPS 22% 11% 14% Low O%10% C%10% Low % Fee Cash Flow 145% 58% 28% 3% Book Value 39% -13% 16% 23% Click to enlarge
What about long-term growth? Management says it can deliver long-term growth of between 11% and 15%. So what do the 26 analysts who deal with Humana think?
The average long-term growth consensus of all 26 analysts is 13.7%, the average level of management guidance. How accurate are analysts in predicting HUM growth?
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Within a reasonable margin of error, HUM has not missed growth estimates in over a decade. In fact, it beats them by 20+% in 33% of cases.
HUM growth rates have ranged from 10% to 22% annually over the past 20 years, and growth indications of 11% to 15% are reasonable given the addressable market of $1.3 trillion and a market share of 8%.
Long-Term Total Return Consensus Investment Strategy Return LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Potential Total Return Risk-Adjusted Long-Term Expected Return Humana 0.7% 13.7% 14.4% 10.1% ZEUS Fund. 9.4% Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF 3.6% 8.6% 12.2% 8.5% Vanguard Dividend Rating ETF 2.2 % 10.0% 12.2% 8.5% Nasdaq 0.8% 10.9% 11.7% 8.2% 10.9% 11.7% 8.2% 19.2% Dividends. 3% S&P 500 1.7% 8.5% 10.2% 7.1% REIT 3.9% 6.1% 10.0% 7.0% 60/40 Retirement Portfolio 2.1% 5.1% 7.2% 5.0% Click to enlarge
Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Total Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment Duration (Years) 7.9% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 Consensus CAGR 12.1% Inflation-Adjusted HUM Consensus Consensus for S&P S&P 500 Consensus Gap 1,465.25 $1,773. 38 $308.13 10 $2 , $146.96 3, $144.89 $997.93 15 $3, $145.84 5, $577.10 2, 431.26 20 $4, 609.44 $9, 890.34 $5, 280.89 $25, $739.00 60. 785.37 $30 9, 896.29 $ 31, 104.02 $ 21, 207.73 Click to expand
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Over the next 30 years, HUM could be a 31X bagger, adjusted for inflation, turning $1,000 today into a $31,000 lifetime investment.
Time Frame (Years) Inflation-Adjusted HUM Consensus Ratio S&P 5 Consensus 1.21 10 1.46 15 1.77 20 2.15 25 2.60 30 3.14 Click to enlarge
Tens of millions of income investors have paid between 16.5X and 21X earnings for HUM over two decades in bear markets and out of bubbles as it has grown at today’s rates.
Metric Historical Fair Value Multiple (11 years) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 12-month forward fair value 13-year average yield 0.66% $472.73 $477.27 $477.27 $603.03330 $NA20350 $20350 s. .45 $6 70.86 $779.06 $877.36 NA Average $500.31 $527.86 $557.75 $679.84 $877.36 $531.31 Current Price $486.22 Discount to Fair Price 2.82% 7.89% 12.82% 28.48% 44.58% 8.49% Uplift at fair value (excluding dividend) 2.90% 8.56% 14% .8925% .8925%. 23 EPS 2024 EPS 2022 Weight and EPS 2023 Weighted EPS 12-Month Forward EPS 12-Month Average Fair Price Forward PE Current Forward PE Adjusted PE Checkout $28.05 $31.87 $24.81 $3.68 $28.49 18.6 17.1 104 Click on Eng.
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Historically HUM is worth about 18.6 times earnings and today trades at a 9% discount to 17.1 times. Net of cash, its PE is 10.4.
Very Low Risk Ultra SWAN 13/13 Quality Company Rating Margin Security Price in 2023 Fair Price in 2024 Fair Price in 2024 Fair Price 12 Months Ahead Potentially Fair Buy 0% $527.86 $557 .75% $5319 $557 Good $5315 $5350 $531575 . 86 $504.75 Potentially Strong Buy 15% $448.68 $474.09 $451.62 Potentially Very Strong Buy 25% $376.10 $418.31 $398.48 Potentially Ultra-Value Buy 35% $3345 $3345 $3345 $3345 $3345 Rent 9.21% 15.36% 9.92% Click to enlarge
No company is without risk and no company is right for everyone. You need to be comfortable with the basic risk profile.
Summary of Humana’s Risk Profile “We see moderate uncertainty about Humana’s future cash flows over the long term, as political risks may not fully evaporate until universal, affordable coverage is achieved in the United States.
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